Thousands of Armenians marched in Yerevan at the weekend, demanding the release of billionaire businessman Samvel Karapetyan. Born in Armenia, he made his fortune in Russia in the 1990s. Karapetyan was arrested in June after what the authorities claim were calls to overthrow the government. From his pre-trial detention, Karapetyan has since established his own opposition movement, Our Way, in view of next year’s parliamentary elections.

Other charges against Karapetyan were dropped last week, but his pre-trial detention was extended for another month. His nephew, Narek Karapetyan, called for the mass rally of supporters to demand his release. Numbers are disputed, with one fact-finding NGO reporting that 7,500 marched from the Yerevan Opera to the National Security Service (NSS) building where Karapetyan is being held, while supporters claimed 25-30,000.

The following day, Karapetyan’s movement assembled at Etchmiadzin, the seat of the Armenian Apostolic Church, in what was described as a ‘pilgrimage’ to support the Catholicos, Karekin II. The movement was specifically named after the phrase he used to describe how the opposition would defend the Catholicos against Pashinyan’s latest attempt to remove the spiritual leader from the position.

“I have always stood by the Church and the people and will personally take part in defending our values,” he said in a media interview in June. “If the politicians fail, then we will participate in […] our own way.”

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has long been at odds with the head of the Armenian Apostolic Church, especially since the country’s defeat in the 44-day war with neighbouring Azerbaijan in late 2020. There are also eight months left until the parliamentary elections in June next year, the first normally scheduled elections held since 2017. Adding to potential tensions, it is believed that Armenia and Azerbaijan are close to signing a peace treaty.

If the ruling Civil Contract party emerges victorious again, Pashinyan is expected to establish what he calls the “fourth republic” or his “Real Armenia” concept. If he wins, he will also submit a new constitution to voters soon afterwards. It is expected to include removing a controversial preamble to the current version that refers to what are considered territorial claims on Azerbaijan and Turkey.

The opposition claims that such a move has been agreed under pressure from Baku, though Pashinyan has said that it is necessary to secure the borders of the current republic and to end a cycle of conflicts that have cost tens of thousands of lives. Pashinyan is also expected to continue to steer away from Russia, its traditional ally, towards the West and especially the European Union. The opposition claims this would also increase Turkey’s influence in Armenia.

Though Pashinyan is believed most likely to win, it is not necessarily guaranteed. Since his ascent to power following street protests in Yerevan in 2018, Pashinyan’s ratings have plummeted. If he won 2018’s snap elections with 70% of the vote, only around 18% of respondents said they would support him next year according to recent surveys from the International Republican Institute (IRI) and local pollster MPG Gallup International.

The opposition, largely consisting of political parties that support former leaders Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan, does not fare any better. Only 7% of respondents in the IRI poll support Kocharyan or the parties that support him, while Sargsyan failed to gather more than 1%. A staggering 62% of respondents is disillusioned with government and opposition alike or simply does not know.

This makes Karapetyan’s movement all the more relevant, with a large part of the electorate perhaps hoping for an alternative. In the latest MPG Gallup International survey held in August, Karapetyan’s was the preferred movement for 13.4% of respondents even though he personally is ineligible to become prime minister because of his dual citizenship. Pashinyan only had 17.3% support. Moreover, 64.4% opposed Karapetyan’s detention and 71% considered him now a political prisoner.

As part of what is considered by many to be a personal attempt by Pashinyan to neutralise Karapetyan, the government has seized Armenia’s electricity generation network away from the businessman. Karapetyan is considered close to the Kremlin and Armenia’s energy security is almost totally in the hands of Moscow at a time when power hungry U.S. tech giants such as NVIDIA expand in Armenia.

Karapetyan is not the only potential challenger Pashinyan faces. Former de facto Karabakh Defense Minister Samvel Babayan, imprisoned in 2020 for attempting to assassinate its then de facto President Arkhady Ghukasyan, has announced he will join former National Security Service Director Artur Vanetsyan. Arman Tatoyan, the former controversially selected human rights ombudsperson, has also thrown his hat into the ring. He served as Sargsyan’s Deputy Minister of Justice.

Kocharyan-era oligarch Gagik Tsarukyan, commonly known as Dodi Gago, who founded Prosperous Armenia in the mid-2000s, will also participate. His critics accuse him of doing so on behalf of Kocharyan. Tsarukyan is no stranger to controversy, with many accusations of financial malfeasance and violence leveled against him. Perhaps to further whitewash his image, the businessman is currently funding the construction of a 33 metres high statue of Jesus.

Others are expected to join the growing number of contenders, but a clearer picture will emerge from next month’s local elections in Etchmiadzin. Earlier this year, Pashinyan’s choice of mayor was defeated in local elections in Armenia’s second largest city of Gyumri. Pashinyan’s Civil Contract also lost in the smaller Parakar community just outside of Yerevan, which it had almost lost in 2023.

On October 20, the controversial mayor of Gyumri was arrested on corruption charges. He had only taken the position in April.