News of the blast at al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza on Oct. 17 quickly led to demonstrations across Turkey. Protesters gathered the next day in front of the Israeli embassy in Istanbul and tried to storm the grounds before being repelled by police using tear gas and water cannons.

The following day protests continued with both Islamist and leftist protesters present in front of the embassy. The first group shouted “Allahu Akbar!” and “Greetings to Hamas” while the second chanted “Down with Zionism, fascism, and sharia” and used slogans describing Turkey’s government as an enabler of Israel.

Support for Palestinians runs high in Turkish society across groups with different ideological leanings. Islamists see the Israel-Palestine conflict through the prism of religion while left-leaning citizens approach it as an issue of colonialism and national liberation. Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) knows that pro-Palestinian messaging is normally popular among voters.

However, since Israel began heavy aerial attacks against Gaza after Hamas-led militants coordinated a surprise offensive against Israel on Oct. 7, the Turkish government has been playing a balancing act between domestic and international politics. It is trying to build on broad local support for the Palestinian plight while preserving the appearance of a balanced outsider who can help mediate the conflict.

Strong ties both with Israel and Hamas

In the first days after the Hamas offensive, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan held phone calls both with his Israeli counterpart Isaac Herzog and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. A Turkish Foreign Ministry statement prioritized ending civilian casualties on both sides and said the ministry would continue discussions “with all relevant parties to help end the violence.”

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stressed the necessity of a two-state solution in an interview with Turkey’s state channel TRT . He also floated the idea of Turkey functioning as a guarantor state for potential talks between Israeli and Palestinian officials. “The important thing is to turn the crisis into an opportunity for peace,” Fidan said.

So far, neither side has taken up Turkey’s offer to be a mediator. Turkey’s position between Israel and Palestine is complex. Erdoğan has long been heavily critical of Israel. For example, he accused then-Israeli President Shimon Peres of being a murderer at a panel at the World Economic Forum in 2009. The next year, relations got worse after the so-called Mavi Marmara incident when Israeli commandos killed eight Turkish nationals on board the “Gaza Freedom Flotilla” trying break Israel’s blockade of the Gaza Strip to bring humanitarian aid.

However, while Turkish politicians receive applause domestically for making incendiary remarks about Israel, trade between the countries quietly rose by 26 per cent the next year. Over the past two decades, trade has increased by a total of 532 per cent.

Recently, these economic ties have been matched by new diplomatic ties as Turkey seeks to normalize relations with neighbors in the Middle East, including Israel. Last year, Erdoğan hosted Israeli President Isaac Herzog in Ankara and met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the UN General Assembly in New York in September 2023.

Despite this rapprochement with Israel, Erdoğan has long refused to criticize Hamas. As recently as Oct. 25 he reiterated that Hamas is not a terrorist organization but a group of holy warriors trying to protect its lands. Hamas leaders Ismail Haniyeh and Saleh al-Arour have been known to reside partly in Turkey and have Turkish passports.

After the Oct. 7 offensive into Israel, some diplomatic sources initially claimed Ankara had asked Hamas officials to leave Turkey but officials later denied this and said they left of their own accord. Either way, ties with Hamas present a challenge for Turkey as it tries to step into a mediating role with legitimacy for all sides. Recently, a group of US congress members  has asked the State Department to urge Turkey to crack down on Hamas’s activities in the country.

Strong statements, few actions

Erdoğan’s more recent statements after the al-Ahli Arab Hospital blast are more strongly worded against Israel. Though Israel claimed that the Islamic Jihad group is responsible for the explosion of a Palestinian hospital, Erdoğan condemned Israel for it. He described it as “a crime against humanity and an attempt at genocide against the people of Gaza.”

However, he again emphasized the need for a ceasefire and lasting stability. Statements like this are likely to both alienate Israel and anger Palestinians for not going far enough, especially as Turkey maintains both its diplomatic and economic ties with Israel.

Most of Turkey’s moves have been symbolic. Turkey declared three days of mourning on Oct. 18. It canceled all events at the Turkish state theater, opera, and ballet. This step was widely criticized by artists and musicians.

Pop singer Zeynep Bastık asked why cultural activities are the first to be canceled in moments of grief. “Why does sharing in someone’s pain mean thousands of people need to stop their work and should be unable to practice their profession?”

The AKP and its allies have also held the Big Palestine Protest in Istanbul for Oct. 28. This is the day before the 100th anniversary of the Turkish Republic. Previous events celebrating the centennial of the country’s founding were canceled due to the three days of mourning. Critics of Erdoğan argue that he is using the Palestine issue to avoid celebrating the event, as Islamists are critical of the secular heritage of the republic.

Changing views on Palestine

While support for Palestine remains widespread, local polls on the conflict in Gaza might show that the ground is shifting in national politics. According to an October 2023 study by Metropoll, 34.5% of those surveyed want Turkey to stay neutral in the conflict, 18.1% want Turkey to support the Palestinians but to remain distant from Hamas, 11.3% want it to support Hamas, and only 3% want it to support Israel.

Many in Turkey appear wary about getting dragged into a regional conflict, especially given Turkey’s role throughout the civil war in Syria. While leftists and Islamists continue to support Palestinian self-determination, though for different reasons, many anti-AKP liberals increasingly see the issue through the domestic prism.